EASTWEST INSTITUTE
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e-mail: prague@iews.cz

A NEW INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIP:
Task Force on the Future of the FR of Yugoslavia

The EastWestInstitute (EWI), in cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia, convened an international conference titled “The Future of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in the Context of Post War Reconstruction” in Bratislava on July 21-22, 1999.

The conference brought together representatives of pro-democracy forces from FRY, such as political parties and NGOs as well as representatives of the international community (European Union, Council of Europe, OSCE, SECI and others).

One of the key barriers to positive change noted at the conference was that the groundwork for the FRY's transition to an open society was not yet prepared. Conference participants from within and outside the FRY agreed that the removal from office of the country's current leaders--many of whom have been indicted for war crimes--will not alone be sufficient for such a transition to take place. Moreover, the current economic and political isolation of the FRY creates serious barriers for the people of the FRY to transform their country into a modern, openand developed society.

The Bratislava Conference also noted the problems associated with the fragmentation of pro-democracy forces within Serbia and Montenegro and urged the creation of a “Community for Change within the FRY" and for a "new international partnership with the people of the FRY." The Conference further called for the immediate establishment of a Task Force to assist in the formation of the Community for Change and to develop a comprehensive action plan for the future of the FRY. The EastWest Institute has offered to serve as the Secretariat for the Task Force.

The Bratislava Conference marked the beginingof a new process, known as “The Bratislava Process”. The Bratislava Process has two aspects. First, the gathering of pro-democracy forces, political parties, NGO’s, trade unions, student organizations, and independent media from FRY to form a “Community for Change”. Secondly, the co-operation of international organizations, (Council of Europe, OSCE, EU) and Southeastern European regional international initiatives (SECI, Stability Pact) with the Yugoslav Community for Change.

Initiating the Bratislava Process marked a change of perception of Serbia and Montenegro in the eyes of the international organizations and media. As a result of the eight year long isolation provoked by Yugoslav President Milosevic and his government, the existence of pro-democracy forces was not recognized in the West, there was a widespread belief that there was nobody in Serbia with whom to co-operate. Bratislava process has shown the opposite. It was clearly demonstrated at the Bratislava conference that in Yugoslavia there are genuine democrats, a real people’s movement, including experts and well known individuals, who desire democratic changes to occur in the country as soon as possible. It was also demonstrated that in Yugoslavia there is a willingness to achieve comprehensive structural reforms of the society and the know-how to accomplish it. This brought about the substantial change in the attitude of the international organizations and media in their relation towards the democracy forces in Serbia and Montenegro.

In the past six months there were achievements in both aspects of the Bratislava Process. Regarding the first aspect, opposition democratic parties started to build up their joint strategy for achieving fair and democratic elections and a comprehensive social reform in October 1999. This effort culminated on January 10, 2000 when all major opposition groups signed two documents announcing the creation of a broad coalition for free and fair elections. In addition, co-operation between important civic sector groups (NGO’s, trade unions, student organizations, independent media) and political parties has intensified. In short, Community for Change in Yugoslavia has become a reality.

Regarding the second aspect, international organizations started with the recognition of Serbian democratic opposition parties and the reformist government of Montenegro as reliable partners. The trilateral committee comprised of officials from the EU, US, and representatives of the democratic forces from FRY was created in November 1999. Representatives of Community for Change participated as guests and observers at the OSCE summit in Istanbul in November 1999. The program “Energy for Democracy” designed by the chief members of the Community for Change was amply supported by the whole Community and has since been implemented. Requests by Serbian opposition for easing of the sanctions that harm the people and do not contribute to change of policy of the current government have been seriously examined. As a result, EU suspended on February 14, 2000 the air travelling embargo. This was a long expected move which has been perceived by the Community for Change in FRY as a recognition by the international policy makers from the West that their partnership in the development and stability processes in the region is viable and committed.

The framework of the Bratislava Process has been established through the following activities:

1. Task Force on the Future of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
2. Open Forum on the Future of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
3. Weekly Flash Reports and Analysis
4. Policy recommendations

EWI started preparations for setting up the Task Force on August 1, 1999, immediately following the Bratislava conference. The Task Force on the Future of the FRY had the first meeting in Budapest, on Sept. 8-9, 1999. Second meeting of the Task Force took place in Strasbourg on Nov. 20-21, 1999. Second meeting was co-sponsored by EWI and the Council of Europe. The third meeting of the Task Force took place on January 30-31, 2000, in Belgrade. At the third meeting members of the Task Force made evaluations of the first six months of the Bratislava Process and decided upon their work for the future period.

Finally, the fourth meeting of the Task Force will take place in Podgorica, Montenegro, on Feb. 27-29.

The integral part of this report is the Short Description of the Task Force and list of members.

There were also four meetings of members of the Task Force from FRY organized in Belgrade. These meetings were very important contribution to coalition building processes. Participants find them to be flexible tool for discussion and developing of the joint strategies. These meetings became unique place where high ranking officials of opposition parties meet regularly with important NGO, trade union and media activists.

At the same time when there was a meeting of the Task Force, sessions of the Open Forum on the Future of the FRY took place, in which international and Yugoslav experts for political democratization, civic sector development and the role of media in democratization processes participated.

First session of the Open Forum was held in September in Budapest, and was dedicated to the role of media.

Second session of the Forum on the Future of the FRY was organized under tittle “Staircase to Europe” on November 20-21, 1999 in Strasbourg. The event was co-sponsored by the Council of Europe and EWI. It was an important step for the Bratislava initiative for it was the first time that an European international organization, the Council of Europe, had opened its doors to non-governmental pro-democratic partners from Serbia and official and NGO representatives from Montenegro.

The third session of the Opened Forum: “Coalition Building for Democratic Change in Serbia – Precondition for implementation of the Stability Pact in the Region” took place In Belgrade on Jnauary 30-31 in Belgrade.

Finally, the fourth session of the open Forum will be dedicated to "Main Aspects of the Relations between Serbia and Montenegro". It is expected to be important contribution for solution of the sensitive and controversial issue of relations between the two republics forming FRY.

Reports and policy recommendations from the Bratislava conference, Strasbourg and Belgrade sessions of the Open Forum were broadly distributed to leading decision makers in Europe and the US, as well as to the general public. These documents became an important source of information for the decision making processes in FRY as well as in the international community.

Reports and documents from the Open Forum Sessions are integral part of this report.

At the first meeting of the Task Force in Budapest, on Sept. 8-9, 1999, it was decided that the EastWest Institute Prague Centre, distribute short weekly reports on events in the FRY to interested organizations and individuals. The purpose was to create a regular source of information on events in FRY. Numerous daily news reports regarding FRY, are available from think tanks specializing in SEE issues, but there was a lack of short weekly presentations and therefore the EWI’s reports are unique. Recipients of the weekly reports vary from key politicians interested in the general events in FRY, but who do not have time to gather and process the information, to specialists on SEE, who also find the reports useful, especially for monitoring the development of political situation in FRY. Since October 1999, 17 issues of these reports have been sent out by e-mail and faxed to many important decision-makers, diplomats, media outlets and others in the West. Every week the Institute receives requests for inclusion on the mailing list.

Encouraged by the high demand for these Weekly Sheet Reports, EWI leadership has decided to start issuing a Weekly Analysis. Many recipients of the Weekly Sheet Reports have expressed an interest in assessments and analysis of main political processes in the FRY. First such analysis was issued in November, 1999, and assessed the impact of the international sanctions imposed on FRY and its effect on the democratization process in FRY. The response to the first issue was immense. The text was reprinted by the influential weekly "Vreme" magazine, Belgrade, in November 1999. Opposition leaders from Serbia used arguments from this text in their negotiations with the Western leaders in November and December of 1999. The effort of the Serbian opposition leaders to induce Western leaders to gradually ease the sanctions succeeded when the EU decided on February 14, 2000 to suspend the air travelling embargo. This was a symbolic confirmation of the West to the Serbian opposition.

Regretfully, only three issues of Weekly Analysis have been printed so far.. Due to overload of activities in December 1999 through February 2000, this important work was stalled. However, issuing of the Weekly Analysis on FRY will resume in the last week of February and will be regularly continued.

Policy recommendations agreed upon at the Bratislava Conference and sessions of the Open Forum have had an impact on the situation and developments in FRY. Please refer to the following section.

By launching the Bratislava Process EWI made a difference in FRY. Policy recommendations contained in the final document of the Bratislava conference and sessions of the Open Forum on the future of FRY had an impact on the political development in FRY and in the involvement of international organizations regarding FRY.

Coalition building within FRY was first mentioned as a pre-condition for democratization at the Bratislava Conference, July 1999, when political opposition leaders and important civic sector activists met together with the representatives of international organizations. As soon as October,1999, the first session of the Round Table, presided by Democratic Center of Belgrade and its leader Prof. Micunovic, featuring all major opposition political groups took place. The Strasbourg session of the Open Forum, as well as meetings between representatives of the Serbian opposition and the EU and US representatives from Oct.- Dec. 19999, called for a continuation of the coalition building initiative, and the inclusion of the civic sector within it. Coalition-building culminated on Jan. 10, 2000 when 16 major opposition groups lead by the Serbian Renewal Movement decided to develop a joint strategy. The Belgrade session of the Open Forum called for the development of a joint strategy platform between political parties, NGO's, independent media, trade unions and student organizations. Following these recommendations, daily consultations are being carried out in February, 2000 and as a result the joint policy statement is expected to be issued soon.

As mentioned above, the Council of Europe was the pioneer of welcoming pro-democracy forces in Serbia and Montenegro. This initiative was continued by the US and the EU through meetings with Serbian democrats, and programs such as "Energy for Democracy", and as a result these connections have been institutionalized through the trilateral committee. The selective and gradual process of lifting the sanctions started with the suspension of the air travelling embargo, as recommended by EWI and the final documents of Bratislava and Strasbourg.

Activities in the framework of the Bratislava Process in the year 2000 will vary depending on development of the situation in FRY. There are three possible scenarios:

• Regular elections for the local authorities and for the federal parliament are due to be organized in November 2000.
• Pro-democracy forces have the very serious chance to win these elections, provided they unify their strategies and efforts through a strong coalition.
• Pressure is to be increased on President Milosevic. Firstly, his government must allow free and fair elections to take place as scheduled, with international monitoring. Secondly, in view of a victorious result for his opponents, the peaceful transfer of power must ensue. As Ambassador Istvan Gyarmati, senior member of EWI and an expert in SEE issues expressed at a recent meeting of EWI, ”the West has to convince President Milosevic that the less painful thing for him to undergo is to allow the transfer of power to democratically elected new representatives.”

• Government of President Milosevic will remain in power, and postpone elections for a long period of time. Economic situation will continue to gradually deteriorate in the year 2000, but without major humanitarian crisis. Oppression against opposition parties and free media will continue at the present path, without having major acute crisis, but with overall situation gradually deteriorating.

• The present regime will increase oppression. Political and civic sector leaders will be arrested, with the possibility of disappearances under circumstances not clarified by police and the judiciary. This might provoke massive protests of the opposition groups and subsequent massive civil unrest. If the regime decided to oppress the unrest , a civil war might occur. Total collapse of the economy and a humanitarian catastrophe are likely to occur under such conditions.

The activities in the framework of the Bratislava process will depend on which scenario takes place.

However, if we presume that the most positive scenario will take place, there are two phases in which EWI will be active. In the first phase, before the elections, EWI will be working in the following:

Meetings and sessions of the Open Forum will be continued this year.

In the Year 2000 six such meetings should take place. The first was organized in January 2000, in Belgrade. The second will take place in Podgorica, on February 27-29, 2000

Additional four meetings should be organized in April, June, September and November 2000, with locations and topics to be determined by the members of the Task Force in accordance with the development of the situation in FRY.

Reports from the meetings, containing analysis and policy recommendations will continue to be an important contribution in policy-making processes in FRY as well as among the international organizations.

EWI will continue to issue regular reports and analysis regarding developments in FRY.

Together with G-17, a prominent think tank of independent economists, EWI began publishing in February 2000 a monthly economic bulletin. The purpose to provide relevant reliable information in the economic field of FRY. Being excluded from the World Bank’s monitoring system, FRY did not provide basic information regarding its economy. EWI and G-17 launched a monthly economic bulletin in an effort to fulfill this gap, and with the ambition to provide basic data needed for the future participation of FRY in the SEE Stability Pact and the implementation of Stability Pact in FRY in the near future.

There will be at least one such meeting every month. This will continue to be an important venue for the coalition-building processes, developing with the unified strategies of all the members of the Community for Change.

President Milosevic and his government should be more isolated in the international scene. His propaganda is misleading and misrepresenting facts. Community for Change should be helped to provide the necessary information on the damaging effects of Milosevic’s FRY policies and its impact on SEE as a whole, and, the potential benefits of supporting Community for Change. Co-operation between Community for Change, the West and CEE, Asian and Pacific regional countries and international organizations needs to be institutionalized. It is important for showing the Yugoslav people that President Milosevic is not welcomed by any stable nation or leader, and, that members of the Community for Change are seen as the true representatives of the Yugoslav people.

EWI’s programs on Transfrontier Cooperation (TFC), security in the SEE and the Parliamentarian Network (MPN) will be coordinated with the activities of the Bratislava process. Ways how these programs should be implemented in FRY will be discussed at regular Task Force meetings. The same applies for all other SEE regional activities.

EWI will make an effort to issue publications on the Bratislava Process more efficiently. All publications will be placed and easily accessible through EWI’s internet site (www.iews.org). Through “Balkan Network” a regional internet site maintained by the Association for Sustainable Development of Belgrade, a discussion group will be formed for the members of the Task Force and other interested members of the public.

Conferences between representatives of donors and Community for Change will be co-organized by EWI and the Belgrade Fund for an Open Society. Two conferences will be organized this year in Prague, EWI Centre. At these meetings donors will discuss the strategy for supporting Community for Change.

In the second phase, after the electoral process, EWI will consider opening a EWI Regional Centre in Belgrade, for South Eastern Europe. With its immense experience in transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the Institute will participate in developing programs on economic reconstruction and development, democratization and legislation and rule of law reforms in co-operation with Serbian and Montenegrin specialists in respective fields.

Prepared by:

Aleksandar Lojpur,
Co-ordinator of the Task Force on the Future of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia,

February 25, 2000

Contact:

Aleksandar Lojpur
EastWest Institute
Rašinovo Nabřeži 78
120 00 Prague 2,
Czech Republic
Phone: +420 2 21984216
Fax: +420 2 294 380
e-mail: alojpur@iews.cz